The Multifamily Story Nobody's Talking About

Really interesting signal buried in today's data on the multifamily front. RealPage, Inc. just reported US apartment effective asking rents rose +0.2% in January—first positive print in seven months. Most people will scroll past it. I think it marks an inflection point.

While everyone's focused on AI and tariffs, the multifamily sector is quietly approaching a structural pivot. For two years, the narrative has been "oversupply." That chapter is winding down—but the transition is nuanced. Short-term softness is giving way to tightening fundamentals later in 2026.

What follows is a closer look at the data driving that view, what it means for the broader macro picture, and why investors should be paying attention now rather than later.

The Reality Check

Short-Term Softness

January national median rents dipped -0.2% MoM—six straight monthly declines—with YoY growth at -1.4%. Vacancy sits at a record 7.3%. We're finding a floor, not rebounding yet.

That distinction matters. The numbers don't suggest the market has turned on a dime. But a floor forming after six months of declines—at the same time RealPage is printing the first positive effective asking rent number since last summer—tells a more interesting story than the headline vacancy rate alone. The question for investors isn't whether the market has already recovered. It's whether the trough is in, and whether the setup for the next 12–18 months favors those who position ahead of the turn.

The Supply Cliff

Construction starts are down 40%+ from the 2022–2023 peak. CBRE notes apartment supply fell below 100k units in the pipeline for the first time in three years this January. Forecasts project 300,000–450,000 units completing in 2026 (RealPage ~300k, Yardi Matrix ~430–450k—Yardi just revised upward 6.4% due to project delays, but the under-construction pipeline is still shrinking fast). Roughly half the 2024 supply wave. Absorption is beginning to outpace deliveries.

This is the most consequential datapoint in the entire multifamily landscape right now. The 2024 supply wave was the largest in a generation, and it broke pricing power in markets across the Sun Belt and beyond. But that wave crested. What's replacing it in the pipeline is dramatically smaller, and the lag between starts and completions means the supply relief is already locked in—it's just a matter of when it shows up in the operating numbers. When absorption outpaces deliveries consistently for two or three quarters, the pricing dynamic flips. That appears to be where we're headed.

Rent vs. Buy Delta

Monthly mortgage payments remain ~46% higher than median rents nationally—exceeding 175% in San Jose, with San Francisco in the 150–180% range. This structural barrier keeps "renters by necessity" locked in, pushing lease renewals to near-record levels.

This is the demand story that deserves more attention than it gets. The affordability gap between owning and renting isn't a cyclical blip that resolves with a couple of rate cuts. It's the product of a decade of single-family underbuilding, elevated mortgage rates, and home price appreciation that has outrun wage growth. Until that gap narrows meaningfully—and there is no near-term catalyst for it to do so—the rental market retains a captive demand base. For multifamily owners, that translates to durable occupancy and renewal rates that don't depend on job growth or migration trends to hold up.

The Policy Catalyst

The Build HUBS Act, a bipartisan bill introduced last month, is the one to watch. By modernizing federal TIFIA and RRIF loan programs, it could unlock low-interest financing for high-density, transit-oriented development—helping institutional capital bypass local zoning hurdles and accelerate attainable housing.

The significance here goes beyond the housing units the bill might produce. It represents a federal-level recognition that housing supply constraints have become a macroeconomic problem, not just a local zoning dispute. For institutional investors, the Build HUBS framework could open a new category of favorably financed development in transit corridors—exactly the product type that sits at the intersection of housing affordability needs and growing ESG mandates. If the bill gains traction, expect capital allocation to transit-oriented development to accelerate meaningfully.

The Bottom Line

We're shifting from survival mode to a potential structural deficit as supply constraints bite. Shelter is one-third of CPI. If rents stabilize and turn upward by mid-2026, the Fed's soft-landing calculus gets significantly trickier.

Consider what that feedback loop looks like: tightening supply pushes rents higher, which feeds shelter inflation, which complicates the Fed's ability to cut rates, which keeps mortgage costs elevated, which reinforces the rent-vs-buy gap, which keeps renters in place and demand strong. That's not a theoretical exercise—it's the dynamic that's setting up in the data right now.

The quiet story defining 2026 isn't a chatbot. It's the roof over your head.

Sources: RealPage, CBRE, Redfin, Apartment List, Yardi Matrix (Feb 2026 data)